Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.110858 2.222783 2.342865 2.482294 2.641085 2.818009 3.032566
2025-07-20 2.033237 2.181664 2.347903 2.550780 2.796002 3.089072 3.476545
2025-07-27 1.950037 2.117738 2.310917 2.554821 2.862502 3.250436 3.801255
2025-08-03 1.885785 2.067190 2.280831 2.558121 2.920765 3.400222 4.128691
2025-08-10 1.799572 1.983435 2.202807 2.492298 2.879432 3.407096 4.246476
2025-08-17 1.746359 1.935827 2.165026 2.472947 2.894982 3.490511 4.491265
2025-08-24 1.701592 1.895698 2.133391 2.457906 2.912867 3.576362 4.754282
2025-08-31 1.664124 1.862475 2.108106 2.448538 2.936226 3.670867 5.051534
2025-09-07 1.640704 1.845469 2.102188 2.464004 2.995244 3.826651 5.504721
2025-09-14 1.582485 1.781979 2.032786 2.387621 2.911578 3.739010 5.438628
2025-09-21 1.557292 1.759858 2.016787 2.384759 2.938224 3.838678 5.802991
2025-09-28 1.519734 1.720528 1.976362 2.345087 2.905058 3.830704 5.918953
2025-10-05 1.509087 1.716880 1.984910 2.377997 2.991313 4.052757 6.708023
2025-10-12 1.509714 1.727672 2.013002 2.440474 3.130543 4.399651 8.104599
2025-10-19 1.490193 1.710938 2.002343 2.444293 3.172185 4.561961 9.081381
2025-10-26 1.471717 1.694898 1.991831 2.447415 3.212413 4.728703 10.288791
2025-11-02 1.433845 1.651772 1.941934 2.387634 3.137464 4.629288 10.170571
2025-11-09 1.411371 1.628892 1.919895 2.370078 3.136649 4.698993 11.027344
2025-11-16 1.391281 1.608706 1.900982 2.356425 3.141662 4.783252 12.132079
2025-11-23 1.373786 1.591587 1.885853 2.347931 3.155299 4.890946 13.673636
2025-11-30 1.364114 1.584813 1.885171 2.362094 3.211922 5.118127 17.147323
2025-12-07 1.329623 1.543303 1.833403 2.292328 3.104697 4.900675 15.353331
2025-12-14 1.316437 1.530874 1.823430 2.289740 3.126325 5.031401 18.213808